Erie is getting wetter!
Pennsylvania has already been getting wetter. Between 2000 and 2020, Pennsylvania has experienced an increase in annual precipitation of approximately 4.6 inches compared to the 1971-2000 period. Annual average precipitation is projected to continue to increase. Pennsylvania will likely experience a small (8%) increase in annual precipitation by mid-century and slightly greater (12%) increase by end of century. (2021 DEP Climate Impacts Assessment).
Extreme rainfall events are also projected to increase in magnitude, frequency, and intensity, making coastal and inland flooding one of Erie's greatest hazards.
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On November 5, 2017, the day was approximately 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average and unseasonably humid. A storm system moving east resulted in three inches of rainfall in a three hour period, causing flash flooding the City of Erie and North East Township and a tornado touching down in Millcreek. A home on East 30th Street collapsed, killing two residents and leaving six feet of water in the home. Over 5,500 residents were left without power.
On average, Erie is getting wetter
There is interannual variability in precipitation totals, with some years exhibiting very high totals and others exhibiting much lower totals.
Precipitation patterns are hard to predict
While the running average shows the overall trend of precipitation totals in Erie, the individual years show that there can be anomalously high or low precipitation totals.
While the general trend is an increase in precipitation, it is still possible to have yearly totals that seem outside of this trend due to this variability.
Precipitation changes are seasonal
Looking solely at the annual changes in precipitation does not tell the whole story, making it important to also examine seasonal trends. Each season exhibits an increase in total precipitation since 1951, with winter and fall showing the greatest increases, and spring and summer showing the smallest increases.
Heavy rain events are more common
Along with an overall increase in annual precipitation, there has been a slight increase in extreme precipitation events. In general, Erie doesn't experience precipitation events with totals above 2 inches very often. However, it is possible for the area to experience events with precipitation totals that are above 2 or even 3 inches, especially in the future, as extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency.
Where it can rain it can flood!
Did you know that according to PEMA, 94% of flood reports made to the National Weather Service from 1993-2023 were NOT in a flood zone?
Pennsylvania Ready PA has resources to help you get flood smart.
Impacts of Changing Precipitation Patterns
Seasonal precipitation changes will lead to more precipitation in the winter and spring and less precipitation in the summer and fall.
The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events across the United States have increased more than average precipitation.
In 2018, severe weather caused approximately $125 million in damage to public infrastructure due to flooding and landslides.
Farmers are already experiencing direct crop damage from increasingly intense precipitation events.
More intense rain events will lead to increased runoff and impaired water quality.
Increases in precipitation will lead to to more mosquito breeding habitat.
